a) Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96%of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5% (Normal). The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
b) Currently, La Nina conditions changed to Neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest MMCFS as well as other climate model forecast indicates that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
c) At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest Climate models forecast indicates that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
d) The northern hemisphere snow cover areas during February and March 2023 were observed to be below normal.Winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a tendency of general inverse relationship with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall.
*IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2023*
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